This article is from page 33 of the 2007-10-23 edition of The Clare People. OCR mistakes are to be expected so download the original SWF or the rendered page 33 JPG
POPULATION experts are predict- ing a population surge in Kilrush in the coming years, despite a decade of overall population decline.
Economic decline in traditional em- ployment; limited opportunities in new emerging employment sectors; and an increase in employment op- portunities in urban areas such as En- nis and Shannon, Galway and Dublin has contributed to the fall in the local population that has been experienced.
However the number of people liv- ing in the town and its environs is ex- pected to rise.
Analysis of population trends for the Kilrush area shows a fluctuating but overall population decline between 1991 and 2006. However, it is esti- mated that the area covered by the new draft plan of the town will see a population increase from 2,657 in
2006 to 2,993 in 2014 and to 3,245 in 2020.
The population forecast projection 1s based on previous population trends in the periods, residential dwelling completions in the past five years and the Clare County Housing Strategy 2007 – 2012.
The population of Kilrush accord- ing to the 2006 census is currently at 2,657, a number that has been hotly disputed as being too low and fail- ing to take account of the large Polish population now living and working in the town.
The new Kilrush draft plan predicts a need for 153 additional new houses in the town during its life time and a further 121 houses during the life span of the following plan from 2014 to 2020.
These projections are based on a further declining household size esti- mated at 2.43 persons per household
by 2020. Such a reduction in size is attributable to such factors as frag- mentation of existing households and smaller family sizes.
The population in the rural area sur- rounding the plan will also have an impact in the development and sus- tainability of the west Clare capital.
The Kilrush rural area in contrast to the urban area, experienced an over- all increase in population from 543 in 1991 to 621 in 2006 which reflects a population increase of 78. Factors in- fluencing this trend include returning immigrants to retire or relocate to the area; the attraction of the western sea- board for people to relocate and live in the area, benefiting from the serv- ices offered by the town of Kilrush; and from good road links to Ennis al- lowing for easy commuting to places of employment like Ennis, Shannon and beyond.
The projected population growth of
157 in the Kilrush rural area trans- lates into an additional housing re- quirement of 56 permanent housing units, based on the projected house- hold size for the rural area of three per household and that the percentage of the population living in permanent private households opposed to those living in communal accommodation is 99 per cent. Census figures also show a decline in the zero to 18-year- old bracket with the population of un- der four year olds dropping by more than 26 per cent — between 2002 and 2006 while the older age groups increase slightly.
The implication from population structure figures against the projected erowth in population for the plan pe- riod is that growth that does occur will largely be a result of fragmentation of existing households and in-migration, rather than natural population growth within the plan area.