This article is from page 59 of the 2005-10-11 edition of The Clare People. OCR mistakes are to be expected so download the original SWF or the rendered page 59 JPG
IT has been a fruitful but confusing week for economic statistics. First we had the end-September Exchequer Re- turns. Then we had the Central Statis- tics Office (CSO) figures for the second quarter of this year, with conflicting figures from the Economic and Socials Research Institute (ESRI) hot on their heels.
According to a statement issued on Tuesday, October 4, by the Minister for Finance, Brian Cowen, an Exchequer deficit of €1,123m was recorded in the first three quarters of this year. This is substantially greater than the Excheq- uer deficit of €418m for the first three quarters of 2004, but well under the budgeted deficit of €2,988m for 2005 as a whole.
The Current Account Balance at the
end of September showed a surplus of €2,238m, not much different to the sur- plus of €2,348m for the same period last year. The budgeted surplus for the full year of 2005 is €4,092m.
The Capital Account Balance at the end of September showed a deficit of €3,361m compared to a deficit of €2,/66m for the same period last year.
The budgeted deficit for 2005 as a whole is €7,080m for 2005.
The CSO then released figures for the second quarter of this year showing that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was 4.1 per cent up on the same quarter last year, at €37,784m. The Gross Na- tional Product (GNP), which excludes the earnings of foreign-owned compa- nies, grew at 3.1 per cent for the same eau lelee
Soon afterwards, the ESRI disagreed with these figures. It said that econom-
ic growth, as measured by real GDP, would grow by 5.7 percent this year and 5 per cent next year.
“Strong economic growth will contin- ues for the foreseeable future,” it said. It based this upbeat prediction partly on the large increase in employment shown by the latest Quarterly Household Sur- oe
SW ilommcaviseet-lKOeMMolciAWiocor mech iO best IKon me ls mainly down to different interpretations of what exactly is happening to produc- tivity.
The government explanation is that productivity has fallen owing to the loss of manufacturing jobs and their re- placement by less productive work. The ESRI, on the other hand, says that there has been a large increase in the numbers employed but that it sees no evidence of a downturn in productivity.